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KMID : 0861120160200020001
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Korean Journal of Oriental Preventive Medicine
2016 Volume.20 No. 2 p.1 ~ p.15
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A Study on 2040 Technology Forecasting using Delphi Survey in Korean Medicine
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Kwon Soo-Hyun
Kim Dong-Su
Chung Keun-Ha
Koo Ki-Hoon
Kim Dong-Joon
Woo Jong-Min
Ahn Mi-Young
Ho Shin-Hee
Kwon Young-Kyu
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Abstract
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Objectives : This is a study for technological forecasting, aiming to find out the promising future technologies in KM(Korean Medicine) and deduce implications for the research and development of KM.
Methods : The first pool of 145 technological tasks related to KM were composed by reviewing the existing data related to technological forecasting. The steering committee for the research set 99 final technological tasks. With the deduced technological tasks, mini-Delphi(2-round) method was conducted and 6 research items were used-the importance, realization time, urgency, technological competitiveness, the main agent that will push forward the task, and obstacles.
Results : As a result on the time when the technology will be realized, 58 out of 99 technologies(59%) were predicted to be realized in the same year domestically and globally. The average of the importance of the 99 technological tasks was 72.9. Among them. As for the main agent to push forward the research and development of future technologies, 'industry-academic cooperation' took the highest portion at 58.7%, and regarding the obstacles to realize technological tasks, the lack of infrastructure(research funds) was the highest at 33.6%.
Conclusions : This study shows that the development of basic technologies in the technologies of Korean medicine is insufficient and it is believed that the development of basic technologies is urgent to promote the development of application technologies.
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KEYWORD
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Technology Forecasting, Delphi Method, Expert survey, Korean medicine, Future technology
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